Oil prices have roughly doubled in a matter of weeks as the war in the Middle East reshapes global energy economics, with Brent crude trading near $98 a barrel Thursday after starting the year at around $60. The price hit a peak of $119 earlier in the week before partially retreating, and has now stabilized above $90 as Iran continues to strike energy targets across the Gulf. Economists warn that the sustained elevation of oil prices is beginning to have structural economic consequences.
Iranian forces struck merchant ships, fuel tanks, oil tankers, and export terminals across Bahrain, Iraq, Oman, and the Strait of Hormuz on Thursday. The Thai-flagged Mayuree Naree was among the vessels hit, with three crew members believed trapped. Iraq suspended all crude exports and Oman evacuated its Mina Al Fahal terminal.
The Strait of Hormuz, which facilitates the movement of about 20% of the world’s seaborne oil and gas, has been closed since February 28. Saudi Aramco warned of catastrophic consequences for global energy markets if it remains blocked. Iran’s military escalated its rhetoric, warning that prices could hit $200 per barrel if the conflict continues.
The IEA released 400 million barrels of emergency crude in a historic coordinated action, and the US contributed 172 million barrels from its Strategic Petroleum Reserve. These measures helped stabilize prices somewhat but have not reversed the underlying supply disruption. President Trump vowed to continue the military campaign and said prices would come down as the mission concludes.
Goldman Sachs raised its Q4 2026 Brent forecast to $71 per barrel. Deutsche Bank warned of stagflation risks. Asian equities fell and European gas prices climbed 7.7%.
