As panic spreads through the UK pharmaceutical industry over Donald Trump’s threatened 100% tariff on branded drugs, some market experts are urging caution, suggesting the move may be “more bark than bite.” The core of this argument lies in the belief that the tariffs will only apply to companies that do not manufacture their products within the United States.
According to Lale Akoner, a global market analyst at eToro, the strategy is likely intended to incentivize foreign investment in US manufacturing. “Most global pharmaceutical giants, including Europe’s Novo Nordisk, Novartis, Roche, and AstraZeneca, already have US plants under way, which likely keeps them out of the firing line,” she explained. This perspective is bolstered by statements from Swiss companies Roche and Novartis, which confirmed they don’t expect to be hit due to their ongoing US investments.
Despite this optimistic analysis, the threat has caused genuine alarm in the UK. The pharmaceutical sector was notably excluded from a major tariff deal secured by Keir Starmer five months ago, leaving it exposed. A government spokesperson acknowledged the industry’s concerns and stated that they are in active discussions with US officials to seek a favorable outcome for what they describe as a “critical” part of the economy.
The new tariff regime, scheduled for October 1st, is not limited to drugs. It also includes 25% duties on heavy-duty trucks and 50% on kitchen and bathroom cabinets. This broad-based attack on imports has reignited fears of a wider trade war. The German auto industry has reacted with dismay to the truck tariffs, calling them nonsensical and warning of negative consequences for both the US and global economies.
This latest development serves as a harsh reminder of the volatility of international trade under the Trump administration. Even with a recent state visit aimed at cementing positive relations, the UK finds itself in a precarious position. The incomplete nature of its trade agreements means key sectors remain vulnerable to sudden and potentially devastating policy shifts from Washington.
